​Department of Statistics & Quantitative Methods

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Abstract Background Physical inactivity is a known risk factor for cardiovascular disease, but it is unclear if total and leisure time activity have different impact on the risk of myocardial infarction and stroke. In this cohort, we aimed to investigate the associations between both total and leisure time physical activity in detail, and the risks of myocardial infarction and stroke, both overall and for men and women separately. Methods We assessed the association between total and leisure time physical activity on the risk of myocardial infarction and stroke in a cohort of 31,580 men and women through record linkages from 1997–2016. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) based on detailed self-reported physical activity. In the adjusted analyses, we included age, sex, body mass index, level of education, cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption, diabetes, lipid disturbance and hypertension as potential confounders. Results We identified 1,621 incident cases of myocardial infarction and 1,879 of stroke. Among men, there was an inverse association between leisure time activity and myocardial infarction in the third tertile compared to the first (HR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.62–0.98; p for trend = 0.03). We also found an inverse association between leisure time activity and stroke in the third tertile compared to the first (HR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.61–0.99; p for trend = 0.04), while the corresponding HR for stroke among women was 0.91; 95% CI: 0.74–1.13. We found no significant association between total physical activity and MI (HR: 1.12; 95% CI: 0.93–1.34) or stroke (HR: 1.14 95% CI: 0.94–1.39) comparing the highest to the lowest tertile in men. Women in the highest tertile of total physical activity had a 22% lower risk of myocardial infarction compared to the lowest tertile (HR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.63–0.97; p for trend = 0.02) and an 8% (95% CI: 0.87–0.98) reduced risk of myocardial infarction with each 1 METh/day increase of leisure time physical activity. Conclusion Total physical activity was inversely associated with the risk of myocardial infarction in women, while leisure time physical activity was inversely associated with the risk of myocardial infarction and stroke in men.

Abstract Background All over the world, especially in the developed countries, maternal age at birth is rising. This study aimed to assess the role of maternal age on the occurrence of preterm birth (PTB) in a large birth cohort of Lombardy Region, Northern Italy. Methods This population-based study used data from regional healthcare utilization databases of Lombardy to identify women who delivered between 2007 and 2017. PTBs were defined as births before 37 completed weeks of gestation and considered according to the gestational age (two categories: 40 age categories). PTB before 32 completed weeks occurred more frequently in the same age categories, except that among multiples no association with advanced maternal age emerged. Conclusion Our study suggested that, after adjustment for potential confounders, both advance and young maternal age were associated with an increased risk of PTB.

Additional file 2. Cubic spline models. LPA = Leisure time physical activity,TPA = Total physical activity.

This record contains data related to article "Clinical relevance of clonal hematopoiesis in persons aged ≥80 years" Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) is associated with increased risk of cancers and inflammation-related diseases. This phenomenon becomes common in persons aged ≥80 years, in whom the implications of CHIP are not well defined. We performed a mutational screening in 1794 persons aged ≥80 years and investigated the relationships between CHIP and associated pathologies. Mutations were observed in one-third of persons aged ≥80 years and were associated with reduced survival. Mutations in JAK2 and splicing genes, multiple mutations (DNMT3A, TET2, and ASXL1 with additional genetic lesions), and variant allele frequency ≥0.096 had positive predictive value for myeloid neoplasms. Combining mutation profiles with abnormalities in red blood cell indices improved the ability of myeloid neoplasm prediction. On this basis, we defined a predictive model that identifies 3 risk groups with different probabilities of developing myeloid neoplasms. Mutations in DNMT3A, TET2, ASXL1, or JAK2 were associated with coronary heart disease and rheumatoid arthritis. Cytopenia was common in persons aged ≥80 years, with the underlying cause remaining unexplained in 30% of cases. Among individuals with unexplained cytopenia, the presence of highly specific mutation patterns was associated with myelodysplastic-like phenotype and a probability of survival comparable to that of myeloid neoplasms. Accordingly, 7.5% of subjects aged ≥80 years with cytopenia had presumptive evidence of myeloid neoplasm. In summary, specific mutational patterns define different risk of developing myeloid neoplasms vs inflammatory-associated diseases in persons aged ≥80 years. In individuals with unexplained cytopenia, mutational status may identify those subjects with presumptive evidence of myeloid neoplasms.

Stata do files, and ready-for-analysis data used in the analysis published in the Final Report to 3ie on the project, "Knowledge Heterogeneity: Experimental Evidence on Information Barriers to Oilseed Adoption in Uganda" (project code TW1.1004). This project was funded as part of r Agricultural Innovation Evidence Programme

Abstract Background Although lifestyle factors have been studied in relation to individual non-communicable diseases (NCDs), their association with development of a subsequent NCD, defined as multimorbidity, has been scarcely investigated. The aim of this study was to investigate associations between five lifestyle factors and incident multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases. Methods In this prospective cohort study, 291,778 participants (64% women) from seven European countries, mostly aged 43 to 58 years and free of cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and type 2 diabetes (T2D) at recruitment, were included. Incident multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases was defined as developing subsequently two diseases including first cancer at any site, CVD, and T2D in an individual. Multi-state modelling based on Cox regression was used to compute hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of developing cancer, CVD, or T2D, and subsequent transitions to multimorbidity, in relation to body mass index (BMI), smoking status, alcohol intake, physical activity, adherence to the Mediterranean diet, and their combination as a healthy lifestyle index (HLI) score. Cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) were estimated to compute 10-year absolute risks for transitions from healthy to cancer at any site, CVD (both fatal and non-fatal), or T2D, and to subsequent multimorbidity after each of the three NCDs. Results During a median follow-up of 11 years, 1910 men and 1334 women developed multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases. A higher HLI, reflecting healthy lifestyles, was strongly inversely associated with multimorbidity, with hazard ratios per 3-unit increment of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.71 to 0.81), 0.84 (0.79 to 0.90), and 0.82 (0.77 to 0.88) after cancer, CVD, and T2D, respectively. After T2D, the 10-year absolute risks of multimorbidity were 40% and 25% for men and women, respectively, with unhealthy lifestyle, and 30% and 18% for men and women with healthy lifestyles. Conclusion Pre-diagnostic healthy lifestyle behaviours were strongly inversely associated with the risk of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases, and with the prognosis of these diseases by reducing risk of multimorbidity.

Purpose: To develop and psychometrically validate a questionnaire to measure patient distress with preoperative fasting related to cataract surgery. Methods: In this single-centered cross-sectional study, consecutive sampling of cataract patients was undertaken immediately preoperatively from February to December 2019. A questionnaire evaluating patient distress with fasting was designed and administered. Questionnaire development occurred in an iterative process and was conducted with consultation from expert investigators and patients. Validation and psychometric evaluation of the questionnaire were performed with Rasch analysis. Results: A preliminary version of the questionnaire was developed by 10 study investigators. Across five iterations of development, the questionnaire was administered to 186 cataract patients. Psychometric evaluation of the 13-item questionnaire demonstrated ordered thresholds, acceptable item calibration and fit, adequate internal consistency, ability to discriminate between three levels of distress from preoperative fasting and no notable differential item functioning. However, issues with mistargeting, clustering of items on the person-item map and multidimensionality remained. Given these concerns, 13 separate re-analyses were conducted via removal of certain items. A 6-item subset was determined to be well targeted, unidimensional, did not display item clustering and was able to discriminate between patients with high and low distress from preoperative fasting. Conclusion: A 6-item questionnaire is a valid, psychometrically robust and reliable measure for the assessment of patient distress with preoperative fasting in cataract surgery. Items include hunger, thirst, hoarseness, weakness, anxiety and nausea. Future studies should seek to validate this questionnaire across a variety of sociodemographic contexts, languages and specialties.

Abstract Many asylum seekers crossed European borders in an irregular manner during the last 2Â years and completed their asylum procedure with a negative decision. Based on the limited number of effective orders to leave, it may be argued that a majority of rejected asylum seekers are de-facto staying in the European Union. This paper aims to investigate the nexus between irregular migration and asylum. The analysis focuses on the case of Italy adopting a residual method. The amount of asylum seekers, who have the right of residence in Italy, is subtracted from the number of immigrants who entered Italian borders in an irregular manner from 2015 to 2017: the remainder amount provides an estimation of irregular immigrants generated by the failure of asylum procedure. A short-term migration scenario is settled for 2018 giving empirical-based insights to quantify irregular migrants who are likely to stay in Italy at the beginning of 2019.

Distribution of first line approach according to pharyngitis diagnosis. Pedianet, Italy, 2010–2015. (XLSX 9 kb)